WATER RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT DI HULU DAS BATANG ARAU: ANALISIS KESEIMBANGAN SUPPLY – DEMAND BERBASIS PEMODELAN SWAT
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Perubahan iklim dan aktivitas antropogenik menyebabkan tekanan signifikan terhadap sumber daya air, mempengaruhi keseimbangan ketersediaan dan kebutuhan air di berbagai daerah aliran sungai. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi ketahanan sumber daya air (water resilience) di hulu DAS Batang Arau, Kota Padang dengan menggunakan pendekatan terpadu berbasis pemodelan hidrologi SWAT dan analisis Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability (RRV). Metode penelitian meliputi: (1) karakterisasi morfometri DAS dengan menganalisis 19 parameter morfometri; (2) pemodelan SWAT dengan kalibrasi-validasi yang menghasilkan nilai performa bervariasi (R² = 0,54-0,97) dan sangat baik (NSE = 0,79-0,89); (3) analisis keseimbangan supply-demand; serta (4) evaluasi ketahanan air dengan pendekatan RRV. Hasil analisis morfometri menunjukkan DAS memiliki bentuk memanjang (Form Factor 0,25) dengan kerapatan drainase sedang (1,40 km/km²). Pemodelan SWAT menghasilkan debit andalan Q80 sebesar 1,51 m³/s yang masih mencukupi total kebutuhan air 0,63 m³/s (domestik 0,0234 m³/s; pertanian 0,4252 m³/s; industri 0,1811 m³/s), dengan Water Availability Ratio (WAR) 1,427. Analisis RRV menghasilkan Indeks Keberlanjutan DAS (IKDAS) sebesar 0,85 (sangat baik), didukung oleh keandalan tinggi (1,0), ketahanan baik (0,84) dengan tutupan hutan 87,9%, namun masih menghadapi kerentanan signifikan (0,65) terutama akibat tingkat erosi tinggi (385,6 ton/ha/tahun) dan area rawan banjir (34,63%). Rekomendasi pengelolaan meliputi teknik konservasi tanah-air, sistem peringatan dini banjir, perluasan zona riparian, dan penguatan kelembagaan pengelolaan kolaboratif untuk mengintegrasikan kepentingan berbagai pemangku kepentingan. Pendekatan RRV terbukti efektif untuk evaluasi komprehensif kondisi DAS dan perumusan prioritas intervensi strategis.
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